EURUSD — Bearish Open Structure Analysis

Generated: 2026-03-13 16:52 | File: EURUSD_bearish_open_struct_01_20220515_20260301_197w_20260313_1652

Study Design

Features computed at each observation (03:00 / 06:00 / 09:00 / 12:00):

price_vs_open_pips — obs bar open minus weekly open
above_open — is obs price above weekly open?
high_so_far_pips — max H1 high (Mon 00:00 → obs) minus weekly open
low_so_far_pips — weekly open minus min H1 low (Mon 00:00 → obs)
upside_failed — high_so_far > weekly open AND obs price < weekly open
downside_extended — low_so_far < weekly open AND obs price < weekly open
no_upside — high_so_far ≤ weekly open (never exceeded open)
upside_extent_pips — how far above open did price go? (binned)

Open-position bucket derived from prior week's high–low range (same as weekly_open_position_01.py).

Feature Landscape — Bucket × Hour

Key columns: P(BearExp)% = bear week probability | Avg Short = avg pips if short whole week | WR Short% = win rate | Upside failed% = % of obs where pattern fires. Red cell = elevated bear prob or negative short. Green cell = positive short / high WR.

Bucket	Hour	N	P(BearExp)%	P(BullExp)%	Avg Short	WR Short%	Above open%	Upside failed%	Down ext%	No upside%	Avg Δopen	HighSoFar	LowSoFar
Gap Down	Mon 03:00	6	16.7	16.7	-13.7	66.7	83.3	16.7	16.7	0.0	16.7	27.4	11.0
Gap Down	Mon 06:00	6	16.7	16.7	-13.7	66.7	66.7	33.3	33.3	0.0	10.8	31.1	11.0
Gap Down	Mon 09:00	6	16.7	16.7	-13.7	66.7	66.7	33.3	33.3	0.0	10.3	31.2	13.0
Gap Down	Mon 12:00	6	16.7	16.7	-13.7	66.7	33.3	66.7	66.7	0.0	-7.3	31.8	33.9
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 03:00	51	13.7	13.7	7.3	58.8	66.7	33.3	33.3	0.0	5.3	13.0	6.7
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 06:00	51	13.7	13.7	7.3	58.8	70.6	29.4	29.4	0.0	4.2	16.4	11.6
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	51	13.7	13.7	7.3	58.8	62.7	37.3	37.3	0.0	3.0	18.2	14.1
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	51	13.7	13.7	7.3	58.8	68.6	31.4	31.4	0.0	2.2	24.3	21.3
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	41	9.8	17.1	-27.8	43.9	63.4	34.1	34.1	0.0	7.0	14.3	6.4
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	41	9.8	17.1	-27.8	43.9	65.9	34.1	34.1	0.0	7.4	18.6	9.1
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	41	9.8	17.1	-27.8	43.9	70.7	29.3	29.3	0.0	10.7	21.4	9.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	41	9.8	17.1	-27.8	43.9	53.7	46.3	46.3	0.0	5.1	28.6	16.8
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	56	16.1	21.4	-24.7	37.5	69.6	26.8	30.4	3.6	5.0	12.6	7.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	56	16.1	21.4	-24.7	37.5	69.6	28.6	30.4	1.8	6.4	18.5	10.2
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	56	16.1	21.4	-24.7	37.5	69.6	28.6	30.4	1.8	7.8	20.6	11.2
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	57	15.8	22.8	-25.5	36.8	77.2	22.8	22.8	0.0	16.0	31.9	15.0
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 03:00	40	7.5	10.0	3.2	60.0	52.5	40.0	47.5	7.5	2.4	12.8	8.8
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 06:00	40	7.5	10.0	3.2	60.0	65.0	32.5	35.0	2.5	8.8	23.0	11.3
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 09:00	41	7.3	9.8	4.6	61.0	63.4	34.1	36.6	2.4	9.7	25.1	13.1
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 12:00	41	7.3	9.8	4.6	61.0	68.3	31.7	31.7	0.0	11.5	34.0	20.3

Monday Feature Prevalence by Bucket & Hour

How often does each feature state appear across open buckets and observation hours?

P(BearExpansion) Heatmaps

Upside-Failed Feature Analysis

Full candle-type distribution when upside failed (left groups) vs not-failed (right). Mon 09:00.

Upside Failed × Bucket × Hour — Detail Table

Bucket	Hour	Upside Failed	N	P(BearExp)%	P(BullExp)%	Avg Short pips	WR Short%
Gap Down	Mon 03:00	No	5	20.0	20.0	-1.4	80.0
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 03:00	No	34	11.8	11.8	11.5	61.8
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	17	17.6	17.6	-1.0	52.9
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	No	27	3.7	22.2	-60.3	37.0
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	14	21.4	7.1	34.8	57.1
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	No	41	14.6	29.3	-37.3	36.6
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	15	20.0	0.0	9.8	40.0
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 03:00	No	24	8.3	12.5	3.3	58.3
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	16	6.2	6.2	3.2	62.5
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 06:00	No	36	11.1	13.9	8.9	63.9
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	15	20.0	13.3	3.4	46.7
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	No	27	7.4	22.2	-53.5	40.7
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	14	14.3	7.1	21.8	50.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	No	40	15.0	25.0	-27.9	37.5
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	16	18.8	12.5	-16.8	37.5
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 06:00	No	27	3.7	14.8	-3.8	59.3
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	13	15.4	0.0	17.9	61.5
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	No	32	9.4	15.6	5.0	62.5
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	19	21.1	10.5	11.2	52.6
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	No	29	10.3	24.1	-52.8	34.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	12	8.3	0.0	32.7	66.7
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	No	40	12.5	30.0	-41.2	35.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	16	25.0	0.0	16.6	43.8
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 09:00	No	27	7.4	11.1	2.6	59.3
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	14	7.1	7.1	8.5	64.3
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	No	35	8.6	17.1	-11.8	57.1
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	16	25.0	6.2	49.2	62.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	No	22	9.1	31.8	-80.1	27.3
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	19	10.5	0.0	32.7	63.2
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	No	44	11.4	27.3	-40.6	31.8
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	13	30.8	7.7	25.8	53.8
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 12:00	No	28	7.1	14.3	-5.4	57.1
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	13	7.7	0.0	26.1	69.2

Upside Extent Analysis — How Far Above Open Did It Go?

Does the magnitude of the early upside excursion affect the bear probability and short return? (Mon 09:00)

For upside-failed weeks (Mon 09:00): does the prior-week close gap affect the outcome?

Short Return Distributions

Weekly short pips: upside-failed vs not-failed, by open bucket (Mon 09:00). Orange line = median.

Candidate Bearish Structures (Meeting Threshold)

Bucket	Hour	Feature	N	P(BearExp)%	Avg Short pips	WR Short%
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	UpsideFailed=True	13	30.8	25.8	53.8
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	AboveOpen=False (price still below open)	13	30.8	25.8	53.8
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	DownsideExtended=True	13	30.8	25.8	53.8
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	UpsideFailed=True	16	25.0	49.2	62.5
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	AboveOpen=False (price still below open)	16	25.0	49.2	62.5
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	DownsideExtended=True	16	25.0	49.2	62.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	UpsideFailed=True	14	21.4	34.8	57.1
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	DownsideExtended=True	14	21.4	34.8	57.1
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	UpsideFailed=True	19	21.1	11.2	52.6
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	AboveOpen=False (price still below open)	19	21.1	11.2	52.6
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	DownsideExtended=True	19	21.1	11.2	52.6
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	AboveOpen=False (price still below open)	15	20.0	29.9	53.3

Judgement — Bearish Precursor Structure

Verdict — Yes, justify Strategy Test 05 (bearish). Sufficient feature evidence exists: elevated P(BearExpansion), positive short expectancy, and WR above 50% in selected (bucket, hour, feature) cells.
Proposed Test 05 structure: Short entry at the observation hour where the best feature is confirmed. Stop = high-so-far + buffer. Exit = Friday close. Run across the candidate (bucket, feature) combinations only — NOT a full combinatorial sweep.

Bearish Open Structure — Feature Analysis