Bullish Open Structure — Feature Analysis

Generated: 2026-03-13 17:19 | File: EURUSD_bullish_open_struct_01_20220515_20260301_197w_20260313_1719

Objective: Find a live-usable bullish precursor structure using only: (1) this week's open, (2) last week's high / low / close, (3) Monday-morning H1 behaviour at 03:00 / 06:00 / 09:00 / 12:00.
No final-week sequencing (HighFirst/LowFirst) is used.
This is a feature analysis, not a strategy test. Mirror study of bearish_open_structure_01.py.

Study Design

Features computed at each observation (03:00 / 06:00 / 09:00 / 12:00):

price_vs_open_pips — obs bar open minus weekly open
below_open — is obs price below weekly open?
low_so_far_pips — weekly open minus min H1 low (Mon 00:00 → obs); +ve = went below open
high_so_far_pips — max H1 high (Mon 00:00 → obs) minus weekly open; +ve = went above open
downside_failed — low_so_far < weekly_open AND obs price > weekly_open ← CORE
upside_extended — high_so_far > weekly_open AND obs price > weekly_open
no_downside — low_so_far ≥ weekly_open (never dropped below open)
downside_extent_pips — how far below open did price go? (binned)

Open-position bucket derived from prior week's high–low range (same as weekly_open_position_01.py).

197

Weeks in sample

783

Total observations

63.5%

Base P(BullExpansion)

474

Downside-failed obs

389

Q2+Q3 bucket obs

Feature Landscape — Bucket × Hour

Key columns: P(BullExp)% = bull week probability | Avg Long = avg pips if long whole week | WR Long% = long win rate | Downside failed% = % of obs where pattern fires. Green cell = elevated bull prob or strong long return.

Bucket	Hour	N	P(BullExp)%	P(BearExp)%	Avg Long	WR Long%	Below open%	Downside failed%	Up extended%	No downside%	Avg Δopen	HighSoFar	LowSoFar
Gap Down	Mon 03:00	6	16.7	16.7	13.7	33.3	16.7	66.7	83.3	16.7	16.7	27.4	11.0
Gap Down	Mon 06:00	6	16.7	16.7	13.7	33.3	33.3	50.0	66.7	16.7	10.8	31.1	11.0
Gap Down	Mon 09:00	6	16.7	16.7	13.7	33.3	33.3	50.0	66.7	16.7	10.3	31.2	13.0
Gap Down	Mon 12:00	6	16.7	16.7	13.7	33.3	66.7	33.3	33.3	0.0	-7.3	31.8	33.9
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 03:00	51	13.7	13.7	-7.3	41.2	33.3	58.8	66.7	7.8	5.3	13.0	6.7
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 06:00	51	13.7	13.7	-7.3	41.2	29.4	62.7	70.6	7.8	4.2	16.4	11.6
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	51	13.7	13.7	-7.3	41.2	37.3	54.9	62.7	7.8	3.0	18.2	14.1
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	51	13.7	13.7	-7.3	41.2	31.4	60.8	68.6	7.8	2.2	24.3	21.3
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	41	17.1	9.8	27.8	56.1	34.1	56.1	63.4	7.3	7.0	14.3	6.4
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	41	17.1	9.8	27.8	56.1	34.1	58.5	65.9	7.3	7.4	18.6	9.1
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	41	17.1	9.8	27.8	56.1	29.3	63.4	70.7	7.3	10.7	21.4	9.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	41	17.1	9.8	27.8	56.1	46.3	48.8	53.7	4.9	5.1	28.6	16.8
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	56	21.4	16.1	24.7	62.5	30.4	64.3	69.6	5.4	5.0	12.6	7.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	56	21.4	16.1	24.7	62.5	30.4	64.3	69.6	5.4	6.4	18.5	10.2
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	56	21.4	16.1	24.7	62.5	30.4	67.9	69.6	1.8	7.8	20.6	11.2
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	57	22.8	15.8	25.5	63.2	22.8	75.4	77.2	1.8	16.0	31.9	15.0
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 03:00	40	10.0	7.5	-3.2	40.0	47.5	47.5	52.5	5.0	2.4	12.8	8.8
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 06:00	40	10.0	7.5	-3.2	40.0	35.0	60.0	65.0	5.0	8.8	23.0	11.3
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 09:00	41	9.8	7.3	-4.6	39.0	36.6	58.5	63.4	4.9	9.7	25.1	13.1
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 12:00	41	9.8	7.3	-4.6	39.0	31.7	65.9	68.3	2.4	11.5	34.0	20.3

Monday Feature Prevalence by Bucket & Hour

How often does each bullish feature state appear across open buckets and observation hours?

P(BullExpansion) Heatmaps

P(BullExpansion) % by open bucket and observation hour.

Average long pips by open bucket and observation hour.

Long win rate % by open bucket and observation hour.

Downside-Failed Feature Analysis

Downside failed = price reached below weekly open during Mon 00:00–obs_hour but has recovered above the weekly open by obs_hour. This is the core bullish absorption pattern — early bears flushed out, price reclaims open.

P(BullExpansion): downside-failed vs not-failed by bucket and hour.

Full candle-type distribution when downside failed (left groups) vs not-failed (right). Mon 09:00.

Downside Failed × Bucket × Hour — Detail Table

Bucket	Hour	Downside Failed	N	P(BullExp)%	P(BearExp)%	Avg Long pips	WR Long%
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 03:00	No	21	23.8	19.0	11.0	47.6
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	30	6.7	10.0	-20.1	36.7
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	No	18	11.1	22.2	-21.4	50.0
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	23	21.7	0.0	66.3	60.9
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	No	20	0.0	25.0	-18.7	55.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	36	33.3	11.1	48.9	66.7
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 03:00	No	21	9.5	4.8	-2.3	38.1
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 03:00	Yes — failed	19	10.5	10.5	-4.3	42.1
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 06:00	No	19	21.1	21.1	8.6	52.6
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	32	9.4	9.4	-16.8	34.4
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	No	17	11.8	17.6	-14.2	52.9
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	24	20.8	4.2	57.6	58.3
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	No	20	10.0	20.0	10.6	60.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	36	27.8	13.9	32.5	63.9
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 06:00	No	16	0.0	12.5	-19.1	37.5
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 06:00	Yes — failed	24	16.7	4.2	7.3	41.7
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	No	23	17.4	21.7	0.0	47.8
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	28	10.7	7.1	-13.3	35.7
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	No	15	6.7	13.3	-22.0	40.0
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	26	23.1	7.7	56.5	65.4
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	No	18	0.0	27.8	-21.0	55.6
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	38	31.6	10.5	46.4	65.8
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 09:00	No	17	5.9	5.9	-11.3	35.3
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 09:00	Yes — failed	24	12.5	8.3	0.1	41.7
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	No	20	15.0	25.0	-28.7	40.0
Q1 (0–25%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	31	12.9	6.5	6.5	41.9
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	No	21	4.8	9.5	-22.8	42.9
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	20	30.0	10.0	81.0	70.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	No	14	7.1	35.7	-32.5	42.9
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	43	27.9	9.3	44.4	69.8
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 12:00	No	14	0.0	7.1	-20.5	35.7
Q4 (75–100%)	Mon 12:00	Yes — failed	27	14.8	7.4	3.6	40.7

Downside Extent Analysis — How Far Below Open Did It Go?

Does the magnitude of the early downside excursion affect bull probability and long return? (Mon 09:00)

For downside-failed weeks (Mon 09:00): does the prior-week close gap affect the outcome?

Long Return Distributions

Weekly long pips: downside-failed vs not-failed, by open bucket (Mon 09:00). Orange line = median.

Candidate Bullish Structures (Meeting Threshold)

Threshold: P(BullExp) ≥ 20%, avg_long ≥ 5 pips, WR ≥ 50%.

Bucket	Hour	Feature	N	P(BullExp)%	P(BearExp)%	Avg Long pips	WR Long%
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	DownsideFailed=True	36	33.3	11.1	48.9	66.7
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	22	31.8	9.1	80.1	72.7
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	UpsideExtended=True	22	31.8	9.1	80.1	72.7
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	DownsideFailed=True	38	31.6	10.5	46.4	65.8
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	39	30.8	12.8	43.5	64.1
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 03:00	UpsideExtended=True	39	30.8	12.8	43.5	64.1
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	39	30.8	12.8	42.1	64.1
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 09:00	UpsideExtended=True	39	30.8	12.8	42.1	64.1
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 12:00	DownsideFailed=True	20	30.0	10.0	81.0	70.0
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	DownsideFailed=True	43	27.9	9.3	44.4	69.8
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	DownsideFailed=True	36	27.8	13.9	32.5	63.9
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	44	27.3	11.4	40.6	68.2
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 12:00	UpsideExtended=True	44	27.3	11.4	40.6	68.2
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	39	25.6	15.4	28.4	61.5
Q3 (50–75%)	Mon 06:00	UpsideExtended=True	39	25.6	15.4	28.4	61.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	29	24.1	10.3	52.8	65.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	UpsideExtended=True	29	24.1	10.3	52.8	65.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	UpsideExtended=True	26	23.1	3.8	61.1	61.5
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 09:00	DownsideFailed=True	26	23.1	7.7	56.5	65.4
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	27	22.2	3.7	60.3	63.0
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	BelowOpen=False (price still above open)	27	22.2	7.4	53.5	59.3
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	UpsideExtended=True	27	22.2	7.4	53.5	59.3
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 03:00	DownsideFailed=True	23	21.7	0.0	66.3	60.9
Q2 (25–50%)	Mon 06:00	DownsideFailed=True	24	20.8	4.2	57.6	58.3

Judgement — Bullish Precursor Structure

Baseline: 197 weeks in sample. BullExpansion weeks: 32 (16.2%). Any feature combination must exceed this unconditionally to be useful.

Q3 (50–75%) open position: P(BullExpansion) = 21.4% at Mon 09:00 (+5.2pp above base). Confirmed as a structurally bullish open bucket. avg long = 24.7p.

Downside Failed feature: Best combination — Q3 (50–75%) at Mon 03:00 → P(BullExpansion) = 33.3% (+17.1pp vs base), avg long = 48.9p, WR = 66.7%, N = 36. When Monday morning makes an early push below the weekly open but price recovers above by the observation time, the probability of a BullExpansion week is materially elevated.

24 candidate structure(s) met the threshold criteria (P_BullExp ≥ 20%, avg_long ≥ 5p, WR ≥ 50%). Strongest: Q3 (50–75%) at Mon 03:00 [DownsideFailed=True] — P(BullExp) = 33.3%, avg long = 48.9p, WR = 66.7%, N = 36.

Verdict — Yes, justify bullish Strategy Test 05. Sufficient feature evidence: elevated P(BullExpansion), positive long expectancy, and WR above 50% in selected cells.
Proposed Test 05 structure: Long entry at observation hour where downside_failed is confirmed. Stop = low-so-far − buffer. Exit = Friday close. Run across candidate (bucket, obs_hour) combinations only — no full sweep.

Cross-study comparison: Run bearish_open_structure_01 alongside this study. Compare lift magnitudes, N sizes, and optimal observation hours directly. The directional asymmetry confirmed in Strategy Test 04 (all 48 long variants positive, 0/64 short variants positive) should be visible here as a higher P_BullExp baseline and wider spread between DownsideFailed=True and False.