EURUSD — Weekly Open Position Analysis

Generated: 2026-03-13 16:15 | File: EURUSD_open_position_01_20220515_20260301_199w_20260313_1615

Formula: open_pct = (WeekOpen − PrevWeekLow) / (PrevWeekHigh − PrevWeekLow)
Values < 0 = gap down below prev week's low. Values > 1 = gap up above prev week's high.
Returns: Long = (ClosePrice − OpenPrice) / pip | Short = (OpenPrice − ClosePrice) / pip (buy / sell Monday open, hold to Friday close — no stop, no leverage).

Overview

Open Position Distribution

Histogram of open_pct values (clipped to −20%…+120%). Gold dashed lines mark quartile boundaries. Coloured shading indicates the four in-range buckets.

Candle Type Mix by Bucket

Conditional probability heatmap — P(CandleType | Bucket). Deeper red = higher probability.

Return Charts by Bucket

Average long pips (top) and short pips (bottom) by bucket. Green bars = positive expected value.

Distribution of weekly long returns by bucket. Orange line = median. Fliers = outliers.

Probability Matrix

Individual Week Scatter

Each dot = one week. X = open position %, Y = long pips return. Gold dashed lines = bucket boundaries.

Full Statistics Table

Bucket	N	Avg open%	P(BullExp)	P(BearExp)	P(BullRej)	P(BearRej)	P(Neutral)	Avg Long	Med Long	WR Long%	Avg Short	Med Short	WR Short%
Gap Down	6	-14.3%	16.7	16.7	0.0	33.3	33.3	13.7 p	-33.8 p	33.3	-13.7 p	33.8 p	66.7
Q1 (0–25%)	51	12.3%	13.7	13.7	17.6	35.3	19.6	-7.3 p	-15.9 p	41.2	7.3 p	15.9 p	58.8
Q2 (25–50%)	42	36.6%	16.7	9.5	23.8	14.3	35.7	24.7 p	11.5 p	54.8	-24.7 p	-11.5 p	45.2
Q3 (50–75%)	57	61.8%	22.8	15.8	24.6	17.5	19.3	25.5 p	25.1 p	63.2	-25.5 p	-25.1 p	36.8
Q4 (75–100%)	42	85.5%	9.5	7.1	33.3	33.3	16.7	-3.9 p	-11.6 p	40.5	3.9 p	11.6 p	59.5
Gap Up	1	111.6%	0.0	0.0	0.0	100.0	0.0	-12.9 p	-12.9 p	0.0	12.9 p	12.9 p	100.0

Findings & Interpretation

Sample: 199 weeks with valid prior-week range data. Gap Down: 6 weeks (3.0%). Gap Up: 1 weeks (0.5%). The bulk of weeks open within the prior week's range.

Best Long bucket: Q3 (50–75%) — avg 25.5 pips, WR 63.2%, N = 57. When the week opens in this part of the prior range, the buy-and-hold long captures on average 25.5 pips.

Filtering potential: The spread in avg long pips across in-range buckets is 32.8 pips. This is meaningful — open position bucket is a candidate filter for Strategy Test 05 (filter the best entry-hour variant to only Q1 or Q4 weeks).

Weekly Open Position — Relative to Previous Week's Range