🔒 CONFIDENTIAL — KALAYA CAPITAL PROPRIETARY RESEARCH — NOT FOR DISTRIBUTION — INTERNAL USE ONLY
KALAYA CAPITAL

Strategy Simulation 05 — Open-Trap Models (Bullish & Bearish)

CONFIDENTIAL — KALAYA CAPITAL PROPRIETARY RESEARCH  |  Generated: 2026-03-13 17:45  |  File: EURUSD_strategy_sim_05_20220515_20260301_195w_20260313_1745

Executive Summary

195
Sample weeks
3.42
05A Filt best PF
28.8%
05A Filt WR
1.32
05B Filt best PF
28.3%
05B Filt WR
1.41
T04 Ref PF

Equity curves: cumulative pips for each strategy's best variant. Each line uses its own optimal (entry hour / buffer / exit) configuration.

Methodology

Methodology:

Test 05A — Bullish Open-Trap Model

T04 Reference — Long / No Filter

Mon 03:00 only (T04 best hour). All buckets. No downside_failed filter.

Best variant: Mon 03:00 | 5p buf | Fri Close — PF 1.41, WR 14.4%, Exp 6.0p, N = 195, MaxDD = 630.5p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 03:005pFri Close19514.4%143.6-17.11169.36.00.07R1.41630.585.6%31.5h
Mon 03:005pFri 17:0019514.4%141.6-17.11114.45.70.05R1.39656.985.6%30.6h
Mon 03:0015pFri Close19522.1%130.4-26.61567.48.00.14R1.39472.776.9%48.1h
Mon 03:005pFri 19:0019514.4%140.3-17.11078.35.50.04R1.38672.685.6%30.9h
Mon 03:0015pFri 17:0019523.6%119.7-26.91497.07.70.14R1.37503.076.4%46.7h
Mon 03:0015pFri 19:0019522.6%125.5-26.61501.27.70.14R1.37495.176.4%47.2h
Mon 03:0020pFri Close19526.2%120.3-31.61586.08.10.13R1.35460.572.8%53.2h
Mon 03:0020pFri 17:0019527.7%112.4-32.01556.98.00.14R1.35445.172.3%51.6h
Mon 03:005pFri 15:0019514.4%136.0-17.1957.14.9-0.01R1.34755.185.6%30.3h
Mon 03:0015pFri 15:0019523.6%117.0-26.91376.57.10.11R1.34573.476.4%46.3h
Mon 03:0020pFri 19:0019526.7%116.8-31.61547.27.90.13R1.34457.672.3%52.1h
Mon 03:0020pFri 15:0019527.2%112.1-31.71437.87.40.12R1.32425.671.8%51.0h
Mon 03:0010pFri Close19517.9%128.8-21.81020.65.20.02R1.29846.981.5%39.9h
Mon 03:0010pFri 17:0019518.5%123.2-21.9959.14.90.01R1.28925.681.5%38.8h
Mon 03:0010pFri 19:0019518.5%123.1-21.9956.44.90.01R1.28879.981.5%39.2h
Mon 03:0010pFri 15:0019518.5%120.3-21.9854.34.4-0.02R1.25957.081.5%38.4h

Profit Factor heatmap: T04 Reference — Long / No Filter

05A Baseline — Long / DownsideFailed / All Buckets

All buckets. downside_failed == True required.

Best variant: Mon 03:00 | 15p buf | Fri Close — PF 1.76, WR 27.7%, Exp 16.9p, N = 112, MaxDD = 413.2p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 03:0015pFri Close11227.7%142.2-31.01897.816.90.41R1.76413.272.3%54.0h
Mon 03:0015pFri 19:0011227.7%139.3-30.91814.516.20.40R1.72394.871.4%52.9h
Mon 03:005pFri Close11218.8%153.4-20.81325.011.80.26R1.70463.181.2%38.8h
Mon 03:0015pFri 17:0011228.6%132.3-31.11741.715.60.38R1.70395.571.4%52.3h
Mon 03:0015pFri 15:0011228.6%131.0-31.11701.415.20.39R1.68417.071.4%51.8h
Mon 03:005pFri 17:0011218.8%149.8-20.81249.911.20.25R1.66435.381.2%37.6h
Mon 03:005pFri 19:0011218.8%149.9-20.81251.811.20.25R1.66463.481.2%38.0h
Mon 03:0010pFri Close11223.2%141.3-26.01441.112.90.30R1.65476.876.8%46.8h
Mon 03:0020pFri Close11230.4%136.5-36.11826.916.30.34R1.65510.169.6%57.4h
Mon 03:0020pFri 19:0011230.4%134.9-35.91784.415.90.34R1.64487.468.8%56.1h
Mon 03:0020pFri 17:0011231.2%128.3-36.21701.615.20.32R1.61485.168.8%55.5h
Mon 03:0010pFri 19:0011223.2%138.1-26.01357.412.10.28R1.61468.076.8%45.9h
Mon 03:005pFri 15:0011218.8%143.8-20.81124.010.00.22R1.59476.781.2%37.3h
Mon 03:0020pFri 15:0011231.2%126.6-36.11651.514.70.32R1.59500.167.9%54.9h
Mon 03:0010pFri 17:0011223.2%136.0-26.01301.711.60.26R1.58501.376.8%45.4h
Mon 03:0010pFri 15:0011223.2%133.5-26.01237.611.00.25R1.55475.976.8%44.9h
Mon 09:005pFri Close11922.7%137.7-28.31115.29.40.26R1.43463.677.3%41.8h
Mon 09:005pFri 17:0011921.8%138.3-28.0990.38.30.25R1.38479.277.3%40.4h
Mon 09:005pFri 19:0011922.7%133.3-28.3995.38.40.24R1.38486.377.3%40.9h
Mon 09:005pFri 15:0011921.8%129.2-28.1749.96.30.16R1.29551.777.3%40.0h

Profit Factor heatmap: 05A Baseline — Long / DownsideFailed / All Buckets

05A Filtered — Long / DownsideFailed / Q2+Q3

Q2 + Q3 buckets only. downside_failed == True required.

Best variant: Mon 03:00 | 5p buf | Fri 17:00 — PF 3.42, WR 28.8%, Exp 33.0p, N = 59, MaxDD = 135.7p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 03:005pFri 17:005928.8%161.8-19.21946.733.01.09R3.42135.771.2%47.1h
Mon 03:005pFri Close5928.8%160.9-19.21930.132.71.07R3.40135.771.2%48.8h
Mon 03:005pFri 19:005928.8%160.2-19.21918.932.51.09R3.39135.771.2%47.7h
Mon 03:005pFri 15:005928.8%155.0-19.21829.931.01.01R3.27135.771.2%46.5h
Mon 03:0015pFri Close5939.0%143.6-29.22253.138.20.97R3.15173.361.0%63.3h
Mon 03:0010pFri Close5933.9%147.7-24.12012.434.10.94R3.14156.566.1%57.1h
Mon 03:0010pFri 19:005933.9%147.4-24.12006.434.00.96R3.13156.566.1%55.7h
Mon 03:0010pFri 17:005933.9%147.1-24.12000.833.90.94R3.13156.566.1%55.1h
Mon 03:0015pFri 19:005939.0%142.0-29.22215.937.60.97R3.11173.361.0%61.8h
Mon 03:0015pFri 17:005939.0%139.6-29.22160.936.60.92R3.06173.361.0%61.0h
Mon 03:0010pFri 15:005933.9%142.8-24.11914.532.40.89R3.04156.566.1%54.4h
Mon 03:0020pFri Close5942.4%140.4-34.02354.139.90.88R3.03208.357.6%67.5h
Mon 03:0020pFri 19:005942.4%140.2-34.02348.439.80.90R3.03208.357.6%65.8h
Mon 03:0020pFri 17:005942.4%137.5-34.02280.938.70.86R2.97208.357.6%64.9h
Mon 03:0015pFri 15:005939.0%135.1-29.22058.534.90.88R2.96173.361.0%60.2h
Mon 03:0020pFri 15:005942.4%133.1-33.72182.237.00.82R2.91208.355.9%64.1h
Mon 09:005pFri Close6431.2%144.4-26.11737.227.10.80R2.51208.268.8%47.7h
Mon 09:005pFri 17:006429.7%150.9-25.61713.526.80.81R2.48213.368.8%45.8h
Mon 09:005pFri 19:006431.2%142.6-26.11701.326.60.80R2.48190.868.8%46.5h
Mon 09:005pFri 15:006429.7%143.4-25.71568.224.50.68R2.36208.668.8%45.2h

Profit Factor heatmap: 05A Filtered — Long / DownsideFailed / Q2+Q3

Test 05B — Bearish Open-Trap Model

05B Baseline — Short / UpsideFailed / All Buckets

All buckets. upside_failed == True required.

Best variant: Mon 12:00 | 5p buf | Fri 15:00 — PF 1.01, WR 33.8%, Exp 0.4p, N = 65, MaxDD = 586.2p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 12:005pFri 15:006533.8%82.5-41.625.30.40.14R1.01586.260.0%58.6h
Mon 09:005pFri 15:006423.4%97.4-30.4-28.1-0.40.14R0.98727.875.0%41.4h
Mon 03:0010pFri 15:006418.8%97.1-23.6-60.4-0.90.06R0.95608.178.1%39.1h
Mon 12:0015pFri 15:006536.9%79.5-49.9-135.4-2.10.03R0.93696.953.8%63.3h
Mon 09:0010pFri 15:006425.0%96.4-35.0-135.9-2.10.06R0.92800.670.3%43.9h
Mon 03:0015pFri 15:006421.9%93.9-28.5-110.4-1.70.01R0.92643.875.0%45.2h
Mon 12:0010pFri 15:006533.8%82.5-45.6-147.3-2.30.04R0.92733.856.9%60.0h
Mon 12:0020pFri 15:006538.5%78.3-54.0-201.9-3.10.01R0.91738.450.8%66.5h
Mon 12:005pFri 17:006530.8%80.6-40.3-200.7-3.10.04R0.89646.061.5%59.4h
Mon 09:0015pFri 15:006426.6%95.8-39.8-241.7-3.80.01R0.87871.468.8%45.9h
Mon 03:005pFri 15:006415.6%88.9-19.0-135.3-2.10.00R0.87579.184.4%31.1h
Mon 12:005pFri 19:006530.8%77.9-41.4-306.4-4.7-0.00R0.84725.764.6%60.1h
Mon 09:005pFri 19:006420.3%98.2-29.9-246.9-3.9-0.05R0.84788.678.1%42.3h
Mon 09:005pFri 17:006420.3%97.2-29.9-260.2-4.1-0.05R0.83800.676.6%41.9h
Mon 03:0015pFri 17:006421.9%84.6-28.7-251.0-3.9-0.06R0.83642.475.0%45.7h
Mon 03:0010pFri 17:006418.8%84.6-23.8-220.9-3.5-0.04R0.82618.478.1%39.6h
Mon 09:0020pFri 15:006428.1%91.8-43.6-352.8-5.5-0.03R0.82947.564.1%52.1h
Mon 09:005pFri Close6421.9%88.1-30.5-289.2-4.5-0.06R0.81785.978.1%43.2h
Mon 03:0015pFri 19:006421.9%83.5-29.0-279.7-4.4-0.08R0.81642.376.6%46.2h
Mon 03:0010pFri 19:006418.8%83.7-23.9-239.4-3.7-0.05R0.81613.379.7%40.0h

Profit Factor heatmap: 05B Baseline — Short / UpsideFailed / All Buckets

05B Filtered — Short / UpsideFailed / Q1+Q2+Q3

Q1 + Q2 + Q3 buckets only. upside_failed == True required.

Best variant: Mon 03:00 | 15p buf | Fri 17:00 — PF 1.32, WR 28.3%, Exp 6.2p, N = 46, MaxDD = 238.5p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 03:0015pFri 17:004628.3%90.9-27.2283.36.20.27R1.32238.569.6%51.8h
Mon 03:0010pFri 15:004621.7%101.7-21.6238.55.20.29R1.31346.673.9%43.9h
Mon 03:0015pFri 15:004626.1%97.2-26.4268.55.80.25R1.30257.369.6%51.2h
Mon 03:0010pFri 17:004623.9%92.0-22.2233.45.10.30R1.30330.573.9%44.4h
Mon 03:0015pFri 19:004628.3%89.4-27.2264.95.80.26R1.30241.669.6%52.5h
Mon 03:0010pFri 19:004623.9%90.7-22.2220.24.80.30R1.28337.673.9%45.0h
Mon 03:0015pFri Close4626.1%94.7-26.5235.65.10.24R1.26249.269.6%53.7h
Mon 03:0010pFri Close4621.7%96.9-21.7187.74.10.28R1.24347.873.9%46.0h
Mon 03:005pFri 15:004617.4%92.7-17.383.61.80.17R1.13344.682.6%33.3h
Mon 03:0020pFri 17:004628.3%90.9-32.1123.32.70.11R1.12353.569.6%55.2h
Mon 03:0020pFri 19:004628.3%89.4-32.0104.92.30.10R1.10344.169.6%55.8h
Mon 03:0020pFri 15:004626.1%97.2-31.1108.52.40.09R1.10352.869.6%54.5h
Mon 03:005pFri 17:004617.4%89.5-17.358.21.30.16R1.09344.682.6%33.7h
Mon 03:005pFri 19:004617.4%88.1-17.347.01.00.16R1.07344.682.6%34.0h
Mon 03:0020pFri Close4626.1%94.7-31.275.61.60.08R1.07344.069.6%57.0h
Mon 03:005pFri Close4617.4%85.1-17.323.30.50.15R1.04344.682.6%34.7h
Mon 12:005pFri 15:004831.2%81.4-36.92.60.10.03R1.00430.362.5%56.5h
Mon 12:005pFri 17:004831.2%79.4-36.5-12.5-0.30.03R0.99494.064.6%57.2h
Mon 12:0010pFri 15:004831.2%81.4-40.8-125.0-2.6-0.06R0.91522.358.3%58.1h
Mon 12:005pFri 19:004829.2%81.0-36.6-111.3-2.3-0.02R0.91553.966.7%57.9h

Profit Factor heatmap: 05B Filtered — Short / UpsideFailed / Q1+Q2+Q3

Cross-Strategy Comparison

All 5 strategies shown at their individually optimal (entrance hour / buffer / exit). The key question: does bucket filtering materially improve tradeability versus taking all confirmed trap trades?

StrategyHourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
T04_refMon 03:005pFri Close19514.4%143.6-17.11169.36.00.07R1.41630.585.6%31.5h
05A_baseMon 03:0015pFri Close11227.7%142.2-31.01897.816.90.41R1.76413.272.3%54.0h
05A_filtMon 03:005pFri 17:005928.8%161.8-19.21946.733.01.09R3.42135.771.2%47.1h
05B_baseMon 12:005pFri 15:006533.8%82.5-41.625.30.40.14R1.01586.260.0%58.6h
05B_filtMon 03:0015pFri 17:004628.3%90.9-27.2283.36.20.27R1.32238.569.6%51.8h

Profit Factor, Win Rate, Expectancy: best variant per strategy.

Stop-hit percentage and average R multiple: best variant per strategy.

Trade pip distributions: best variant per strategy.

Weekly candle-type attribution for traded weeks (best variant per strategy).

Judgement

Confidentiality: This analysis is proprietary to Kalaya Capital. All strategy logic, parameters, and results are internal research material.
05A: Bucket filtering improves the bullish trap model. Filtered (Q2+Q3) PF = 3.42 vs baseline PF = 1.76 (+2.01). WR: 28.8% vs 27.7% (+14.4pp). Expectancy: 33.0p vs 16.9p. Restricting to bullish open-position buckets concentrates the edge.
05A adds value over the Test 04 reference. Filtered trap PF = 3.42 vs T04 Ref PF = 1.41 (+2.01). Expectancy: ++27.0p improvement. The downside_failed feature adds meaningful filtration over the unconditional entry.
05B: Bearish trap model shows positive edge in filtered variant. Filtered (Q1+Q2+Q3) PF = 1.32, WR = 28.3%, Expectancy = 6.2p. This is the first confirmed positive bearish expectancy across all studies.
Overall best strategy: 05A_filt — PF = 3.42, WR = 28.8%, Expectancy = 33.0p, N = 59. Observation hour: Mon 03:00, Buffer: 5p, Exit: Fri 17:00.
Recommendation — Next Step: Both bullish and bearish trap models show positive edge. Proceed to Strategy Test 06 for both directions, focusing on parameter refinement rather than further bucket filtering. Consider whether a combined allocation (long Q2/Q3, short Q1) produces a smoother equity curve.