KALAYA CAPITAL

Structural Strategy Test 04 — Time-Based Monday Entry Models

Generated: 2026-03-13 15:37  |  File: EURUSD_strategy_sim04_20220508_20260301_200w_20260313_1537

Entry rule (live data only): At the entry time, only the following is used: Monday open, low-so-far (H1 bars completed before entry), and high-so-far (same). Stop = lsf − buffer (Long) or hsf + buffer (Short). CandleType labels appear only in the attribution section and are NOT used for entry decisions.

Model Configuration

ParameterValues tested
SymbolEURUSD
Long entry times (Monday)03:00 / 06:00 / 09:00
Short entry times (Monday)03:00 / 06:00 / 09:00 / 12:00
Stop buffers5 / 10 / 15 / 20 pips
Exit times (Friday)15:00 / 17:00 / 19:00 / weekly close
Long variants total3 × 4 × 4 = 48
Short variants total4 × 4 × 4 = 64
Total variants112
Weeks tested200

Long-Only Model — Overview

48
Long variants
48 / 48
Positive expect.
8.4 pips
Best expectancy
1.37
Best PF

Expectancy distribution by entry hour (all buffer/exit combos)

Expectancy vs Max DD scatter — bubble size ∝ PF

Top 10 Long Variants by Expectancy

VariantNWR%Avg WinAvg LossExpectAvg RPFTotal pipsMax DDStop%Ref DistHold h
L E03 B20 Xclose19626.0120.3-31.08.40.1371.371642.5-460.573.012.653.0
L E03 B15 Xclose19621.9130.4-25.98.40.1481.411642.4-472.777.012.647.9
L E03 B15 X1719623.0122.6-26.18.10.1531.41578.9-583.976.512.646.5
L E03 B20 X1719626.5116.0-31.17.90.1321.351556.3-516.172.412.651.3
L E03 B20 X1919627.0113.4-31.27.90.1291.351545.9-441.572.412.651.9
L E03 B15 X1919623.0121.3-26.17.70.1341.381515.4-512.976.512.647.0
L E03 B20 X1519627.6107.8-31.27.10.1171.311394.1-406.871.912.650.8
L E03 B15 X1519623.5114.4-26.26.80.1131.341328.2-603.876.512.646.0
L E03 B5 Xclose19613.8145.8-16.16.20.0561.451219.4-623.086.212.630.6
L E06 B20 Xclose19627.6116.5-35.96.10.1151.231189.9-512.371.417.254.0

Top 10 Long variants — expectancy (left) and PF (right)

Long-Only Model — Heatmaps by Entry Hour

Left cell = Expectancy (pips). Right cell = PF. Rows = buffer. Columns = exit time.

Mon 03:00

Mon 06:00

Mon 09:00

Long-Only Model — Best Variant Equity Curve

Equity curve for the best Long variant (highest expectancy)

Long-Only Model — Best Variant Type Attribution

Ex-post attribution only — CandleType not used in entry logic.
CandleTypeN_WeeksN_TradesWinRate%TotalPipsExpectancyProfFactor
BullExpansion323187.14554.1146.934.02
BearExpansion25250.0-704.3nan0.0
BullRejection47468.7-1065.1-23.20.14
BearRejection51508.0-1344.9-26.90.11
NeutralRange454436.4202.74.61.23

Ex-post candle type attribution — total pips (left) and win rate (right)

Short-Only Model — Overview

64
Short variants
0 / 64
Positive expect.
-0.8 pips
Best expectancy
0.95
Best PF

Expectancy distribution by entry hour

Expectancy vs Max DD scatter

Top 10 Short Variants by Expectancy

VariantNWR%Avg WinAvg LossExpectAvg RPFTotal pipsMax DDStop%Ref DistHold h
S E12 B5 X1519821.282.2-23.2-0.8-0.0190.95-164.3-973.876.321.337.3
S E09 B5 X1519715.790.0-18.5-1.4-0.0780.91-280.3-1197.084.314.027.2
S E12 B5 X1719822.276.3-23.6-1.4-0.0080.93-269.2-801.976.821.337.8
S E06 B5 X1519614.893.3-18.0-1.50.0640.9-296.1-1310.585.212.927.7
S E06 B5 X1719614.390.4-17.9-2.4-0.0220.84-476.3-1223.185.712.927.9
S E12 B10 X1519822.285.8-27.8-2.5-0.0990.88-500.5-1133.774.221.340.9
S E09 B5 X1719715.286.2-18.5-2.6-0.110.84-505.4-1187.784.814.027.5
S E03 B10 X1519614.389.6-18.1-2.8-0.1670.82-539.2-1515.785.28.427.7
S E09 B20 X1519726.482.0-33.7-3.1-0.0680.87-618.0-1278.772.614.043.9
S E12 B10 X1719823.279.9-28.5-3.3-0.1010.85-649.8-1021.175.321.341.4

Top 10 Short variants

Short-Only Model — Heatmaps by Entry Hour

Left cell = Expectancy. Right cell = PF.

Mon 03:00

Mon 06:00

Mon 09:00

Mon 12:00

Short-Only Model — Best Variant Equity Curve

Best Short variant equity curve

Short-Only Model — Best Variant Type Attribution

Ex-post attribution only.
CandleTypeN_WeeksN_TradesWinRate%TotalPipsExpectancyProfFactor
BullExpansion32323.1-527.9-16.50.01
BearExpansion252556.01168.446.75.52
BullRejection474714.9-732.0-15.60.39
BearRejection515016.0-231.6-4.60.71
NeutralRange454427.3158.83.61.19

Ex-post type attribution

Full Comparison — All Variants

Long variants — all parameter combinations (sorted by expectancy)

DirEntryBuf (p)ExitNWR%Avg WinAvg LossExpectAvg RPFTotal pipsMax DDStop%Ref DistHold h
Long320close19626.0120.3-31.08.40.1371.371642.5-460.573.012.653.0
Long315close19621.9130.4-25.98.40.1481.411642.4-472.777.012.647.9
Long3151719623.0122.6-26.18.10.1531.41578.9-583.976.512.646.5
Long3201719626.5116.0-31.17.90.1321.351556.3-516.172.412.651.3
Long3201919627.0113.4-31.27.90.1291.351545.9-441.572.412.651.9
Long3151919623.0121.3-26.17.70.1341.381515.4-512.976.512.647.0
Long3201519627.6107.8-31.27.10.1171.311394.1-406.871.912.650.8
Long3151519623.5114.4-26.26.80.1131.341328.2-603.876.512.646.0
Long35close19613.8145.8-16.16.20.0561.451219.4-623.086.212.630.6
Long620close19627.6116.5-35.96.10.1151.231189.9-512.371.417.254.0
Long6201919628.1113.6-36.06.00.1271.231173.7-571.370.917.252.9
Long310close19617.9128.8-21.05.70.0361.331121.0-846.781.612.639.2
Long6201719628.1112.4-36.05.60.1171.221106.3-603.570.917.252.3
Long95close19718.3131.2-22.75.50.291.291074.0-574.381.719.634.0
Long351719613.8140.6-16.15.50.0121.41079.6-722.586.212.629.8
Long351919613.8140.1-16.15.40.0191.391064.6-680.586.212.630.1
Long920close19727.9113.8-36.65.40.061.211070.1-651.970.619.652.4
Long6151719624.5119.6-31.65.40.171.231063.5-588.975.017.248.1
Long3101719618.4122.6-21.15.30.0281.311037.9-966.681.612.638.1
Long615close19623.5124.7-31.55.20.1441.211014.5-499.075.517.249.6
Long9201919728.4110.5-36.65.20.0721.21021.7-710.970.119.651.2
Long951719718.3129.1-22.75.10.2951.27997.5-673.881.719.633.0
Long3101919618.4121.3-21.15.10.0171.29992.3-916.481.612.638.4
Long6151919624.0121.4-31.55.10.1571.211009.0-521.575.017.248.6
Long9201719728.4110.3-36.75.00.071.19994.5-743.170.119.650.6
Long951919718.3128.6-22.75.00.2961.27977.7-631.881.719.633.3
Long65close19615.8141.7-21.34.50.1051.25883.6-598.484.217.233.6
Long6201519627.6109.5-35.44.50.1011.18880.7-488.070.417.251.7
Long351519613.8132.2-16.14.4-0.0471.31853.4-776.286.212.629.5
Long3101519618.4116.8-21.14.2-0.0181.25831.0-1003.781.612.637.7
Long6151519624.0116.7-31.34.10.1461.17812.6-576.475.017.247.6
Long651719615.8137.8-21.33.90.0891.22763.8-683.784.217.232.7
Long951519717.8126.6-22.63.90.2521.21768.0-727.581.719.632.6
Long9201519726.9111.0-35.73.80.0481.14740.9-627.669.519.650.0
Long651919615.8136.2-21.33.60.0731.2713.3-658.684.217.233.0
Long6101719620.4120.7-26.63.50.091.16680.5-914.979.617.239.8
Long610close19619.9124.4-26.53.50.0781.17694.2-809.279.617.241.0
Long6101919620.4119.9-26.63.30.0821.16648.2-881.679.617.240.2
Long9151919723.9116.1-32.23.20.0551.13622.7-661.174.619.646.3
Long9151719724.4113.9-32.43.20.0591.13638.5-695.074.619.645.8
Long915close19723.4118.7-32.13.10.0291.12604.9-617.275.119.647.3
Long651519615.3135.6-21.12.90.0641.16558.6-712.884.217.232.4
Long910close19719.8124.0-27.32.60.0371.12517.0-767.979.219.639.4
Long9101719720.3120.7-27.52.60.061.12507.4-868.579.219.638.1
Long6101519619.9118.6-26.42.40.0641.12479.5-927.479.617.239.4
Long9101919720.3119.7-27.52.40.0541.11476.4-820.579.219.638.5
Long9151519722.8115.4-31.81.80.0231.07360.6-682.574.619.645.3
Long9101519719.8118.5-27.41.50.0291.07296.4-904.879.219.637.7

Short variants — all parameter combinations (sorted by expectancy)

DirEntryBuf (p)ExitNWR%Avg WinAvg LossExpectAvg RPFTotal pipsMax DDStop%Ref DistHold h
Short1251519821.282.2-23.2-0.8-0.0190.95-164.3-973.876.321.337.3
Short951519715.790.0-18.5-1.4-0.0780.91-280.3-1197.084.314.027.2
Short1251719822.276.3-23.6-1.4-0.0080.93-269.2-801.976.821.337.8
Short651519614.893.3-18.0-1.50.0640.9-296.1-1310.585.212.927.7
Short651719614.390.4-17.9-2.4-0.0220.84-476.3-1223.185.712.927.9
Short12101519822.285.8-27.8-2.5-0.0990.88-500.5-1133.774.221.340.9
Short951719715.286.2-18.5-2.6-0.110.84-505.4-1187.784.814.027.5
Short3101519614.389.6-18.1-2.8-0.1670.82-539.2-1515.785.28.427.7
Short9201519726.482.0-33.7-3.1-0.0680.87-618.0-1278.772.614.043.9
Short12101719823.279.9-28.5-3.3-0.1010.85-649.8-1021.175.321.341.4
Short1251919819.778.5-23.4-3.4-0.050.82-665.5-973.277.821.338.3
Short651919613.887.0-17.9-3.5-0.0810.78-677.5-1153.386.212.928.2
Short65close19613.887.0-17.9-3.5-0.0860.78-677.8-1133.286.212.928.8
Short12201519827.884.0-37.1-3.5-0.0670.87-686.9-1413.667.721.349.6
Short125close19819.777.7-23.5-3.6-0.0660.81-706.9-1018.377.821.339.2
Short3101719613.391.7-18.2-3.6-0.1950.77-702.2-1432.786.28.428.0
Short9101519718.384.8-23.6-3.8-0.1680.81-739.2-1450.981.214.032.0
Short12151519824.782.1-32.4-4.0-0.1260.83-798.5-1320.371.221.344.7
Short951919714.779.6-18.5-4.0-0.2150.74-797.1-1179.685.314.027.8
Short95close19714.778.9-18.5-4.1-0.2180.74-816.0-1182.885.314.028.4
Short3151519617.385.6-23.2-4.4-0.1890.77-852.9-1709.182.18.434.2
Short6201519623.587.5-32.6-4.4-0.0730.82-864.0-1652.074.512.944.5
Short6101519616.886.1-22.8-4.5-0.1220.76-876.5-1710.982.112.931.7
Short35151967.797.1-13.0-4.6-0.4640.62-900.9-1502.591.88.418.9
Short9151519721.383.2-28.5-4.7-0.1650.79-928.2-1505.478.214.037.7
Short3101919612.886.3-18.2-4.8-0.2580.69-948.7-1401.386.78.428.3
Short9101719717.384.6-23.5-4.9-0.1930.75-960.6-1464.182.214.032.4
Short310close19612.288.6-18.1-5.0-0.2590.68-987.4-1419.586.78.428.8
Short6101719616.384.0-22.8-5.4-0.1770.72-1059.2-1626.083.212.932.0
Short35171968.280.3-13.1-5.5-0.5170.55-1071.1-1492.891.88.419.1
Short9201719724.979.4-33.6-5.5-0.1290.78-1082.3-1495.773.614.044.5
Short12201719827.879.1-38.0-5.5-0.1190.8-1091.8-1585.669.221.350.2
Short12101919820.780.9-28.2-5.6-0.1530.75-1110.4-1301.675.821.341.9
Short3201519619.985.6-28.3-5.6-0.1910.75-1103.5-1779.779.68.438.5
Short3151719616.384.0-23.2-5.7-0.240.71-1110.2-1708.082.78.434.6
Short1210close19820.780.6-28.2-5.7-0.1580.75-1127.7-1319.975.821.342.8
Short12151719824.776.3-32.9-5.8-0.1840.76-1155.6-1386.272.221.345.3
Short6151519619.485.9-27.9-5.8-0.1420.74-1144.8-1799.279.612.937.2
Short9151719720.380.8-28.4-6.2-0.2040.72-1231.1-1589.678.714.038.1
Short9101919716.878.6-23.5-6.4-0.2670.67-1262.6-1488.682.714.032.7
Short35191967.775.1-13.1-6.4-0.5650.48-1244.6-1463.192.38.419.2
Short6201719621.985.9-32.4-6.5-0.1480.74-1269.5-1802.375.512.945.0
Short35close1967.772.6-13.1-6.5-0.5640.46-1282.7-1464.792.38.419.5
Short910close19716.280.0-23.4-6.6-0.2750.66-1299.4-1502.482.714.033.4
Short6101919615.879.4-22.9-6.7-0.2340.65-1311.2-1602.083.712.932.4
Short3151919616.378.0-23.3-6.7-0.280.65-1319.0-1635.883.28.434.9
Short610close19615.381.8-22.8-6.8-0.2410.65-1329.8-1600.283.712.933.0
Short6151719618.982.7-27.9-7.0-0.2010.69-1374.7-1785.080.112.937.6
Short315close19615.380.8-23.0-7.1-0.2930.63-1400.6-1697.083.28.435.6
Short9201919723.476.8-33.0-7.4-0.1870.71-1449.4-1741.773.614.045.0
Short3201719618.981.0-28.2-7.6-0.2610.67-1487.7-1941.780.18.438.9
Short920close19722.379.0-32.7-7.7-0.1950.7-1520.8-1804.374.114.046.0
Short12201919824.780.8-37.0-7.9-0.1630.72-1556.1-1923.469.221.350.9
Short9151919719.874.6-28.4-8.0-0.2690.65-1568.1-1754.079.214.038.5
Short6201919620.982.8-32.1-8.1-0.1940.68-1582.9-1995.275.512.945.4
Short620close19621.480.4-32.4-8.2-0.2010.68-1613.8-2017.376.012.946.4
Short12151919821.778.1-32.2-8.2-0.2330.67-1629.2-1800.472.721.345.8
Short1220close19824.780.2-37.4-8.3-0.1710.71-1636.5-1989.269.721.352.1
Short915close19718.378.9-27.9-8.4-0.2840.63-1656.8-1836.379.214.039.4
Short1215close19821.778.1-32.4-8.4-0.2330.67-1658.6-1825.872.721.346.9
Short6151919618.477.6-27.8-8.5-0.2540.63-1663.1-1906.380.612.938.0
Short615close19618.476.0-27.9-8.8-0.2710.61-1727.1-1963.980.612.938.7
Short3201919618.476.1-28.1-8.9-0.3060.61-1753.3-2016.580.18.439.3
Short320close19617.977.2-28.0-9.2-0.3130.6-1812.6-2069.480.68.440.1

Judgement — Does Simple Timing Have Edge?

Q1 — Does the Long timing model have edge? Yes. Best variant: Mon 03:00 | Buf 20p | Exit Fri-close → Expectancy 8.4 pips, PF 1.37. 100.0% of all long variants have positive expectancy. The BullExpansion timing structure is present in the data.
Q2 — Short timing model: no edge found. The best short variant expectancy = -0.8 pips.
Q3 — Directional asymmetry: Long is stronger. Long timing models show edge but short does not. This is consistent with the BullExpansion sample being larger and more reliable in this dataset period. A Long-only approach at the better entry times has structural support.
Recommended next test (Test 05): Take the best-performing entry hour and buffer from each direction. Re-run that single variant filtered to weeks where the Sequence == 'LowFirst' (Long) or 'HighFirst' (Short) — i.e. only weeks where Monday sets the primary extreme first, consistent with an Expansion template. This is the minimum viable one-filter model. Compare filtered vs unfiltered on N trades, expectancy, and hit rate change.