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KALAYA CAPITAL

USDJPY — Strategy Simulation 08 — Open-Trap Models (Bullish & Bearish)

CONFIDENTIAL — KALAYA CAPITAL PROPRIETARY RESEARCH  |  Generated: 2026-03-14 07:47  |  File: USDJPY_strategy_sim_08_20220515_20260301_195w_20260314_0747

Executive Summary

195
Sample weeks
3.01
08A Filt best PF
40.0%
08A Filt WR
1.57
08B Filt best PF
28.6%
05B Filt WR
1.24
T04 Ref PF

Equity curves: cumulative pips for each strategy's best variant. Each line uses its own optimal (entry hour / buffer / exit) configuration.

Methodology

Methodology:

Test 05A — Bullish Open-Trap Model

T04 Reference — Long / No Filter

Mon 03:00 only (T04 best hour). All buckets. No downside_failed filter.

Best variant: Mon 03:00 | 20p buf | Fri Close — PF 1.24, WR 26.2%, Exp 8.6p, N = 195, MaxDD = 1229.1p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 03:0020pFri Close19526.2%169.7-48.51668.88.60.25R1.241229.173.3%47.0h
Mon 03:0020pFri 17:0019526.2%169.3-48.31685.18.60.26R1.241188.172.3%45.4h
Mon 03:0020pFri 15:0019526.2%167.6-48.21601.18.20.25R1.231053.572.3%44.9h
Mon 03:0020pFri 19:0019526.7%164.9-48.61619.38.30.24R1.231252.172.8%46.0h
Mon 03:0010pFri 19:0019520.0%184.6-39.21083.75.60.25R1.182003.880.0%35.8h
Mon 03:0010pFri Close19520.0%184.3-39.21069.65.50.25R1.172030.880.0%36.6h
Mon 03:0010pFri 17:0019519.5%187.5-39.01001.05.10.23R1.161953.780.0%35.4h
Mon 03:0015pFri 15:0019523.1%168.8-43.81031.65.30.21R1.161665.075.9%40.0h
Mon 03:0015pFri 19:0019522.6%172.2-43.8963.54.90.18R1.151867.976.9%40.9h
Mon 03:0010pFri 15:0019519.5%183.7-39.0856.34.40.21R1.141908.080.0%35.0h
Mon 03:0015pFri 17:0019522.6%171.8-43.8948.04.90.19R1.141845.476.4%40.4h
Mon 03:0015pFri Close19522.1%176.4-43.7946.04.90.18R1.141924.277.4%41.8h
Mon 03:005pFri 19:0019517.4%178.2-34.8460.82.40.30R1.081844.282.6%32.4h
Mon 03:005pFri 15:0019517.4%176.2-34.8394.42.00.30R1.071748.482.6%31.7h
Mon 03:005pFri 17:0019517.4%176.9-34.8416.22.10.28R1.071794.182.6%32.0h
Mon 03:005pFri Close19517.4%176.8-34.8413.52.10.28R1.071871.282.6%33.1h

Profit Factor heatmap: T04 Reference — Long / No Filter

08A Baseline — Long / DownsideFailed / All Buckets

All buckets. downside_failed == True required.

Best variant: Mon 09:00 | 5p buf | Fri 15:00 — PF 1.56, WR 34.6%, Exp 20.2p, N = 104, MaxDD = 745.7p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 09:005pFri 17:0010434.6%161.8-55.02086.420.10.61R1.56724.764.4%54.2h
Mon 09:005pFri 19:0010433.7%166.7-54.32087.220.10.62R1.56727.464.4%54.9h
Mon 09:005pFri 15:0010434.6%162.8-55.32099.820.20.58R1.56745.764.4%53.5h
Mon 09:005pFri Close10432.7%173.1-54.32086.220.10.64R1.55719.565.4%56.3h
Mon 09:0020pFri 17:0010439.4%159.1-71.12045.619.70.44R1.46859.758.7%60.2h
Mon 09:0020pFri Close10437.5%167.7-69.92000.819.20.45R1.44854.559.6%62.7h
Mon 09:0020pFri 19:0010438.5%160.8-70.01953.118.80.43R1.44862.458.7%61.0h
Mon 09:0010pFri 15:0010434.6%162.8-60.21770.217.00.44R1.43790.763.5%54.7h
Mon 09:0010pFri 19:0010433.7%166.7-59.11754.716.90.47R1.43800.064.4%56.1h
Mon 09:0010pFri 17:0010434.6%161.8-59.91753.916.90.46R1.43777.764.4%55.4h
Mon 09:0020pFri 15:0010438.5%160.6-70.51913.518.40.39R1.42880.758.7%59.4h
Mon 09:0010pFri Close10432.7%173.1-59.11748.716.80.49R1.42811.565.4%57.5h
Mon 09:0015pFri 15:0010436.5%157.5-65.31672.916.10.38R1.39835.761.5%57.3h
Mon 09:0015pFri 17:0010435.6%162.1-64.81656.315.90.39R1.38814.762.5%58.1h
Mon 09:0015pFri Close10433.7%172.5-63.81636.115.70.41R1.37809.563.5%60.3h
Mon 09:0015pFri 19:0010434.6%165.9-63.91629.115.70.40R1.37817.462.5%58.8h
Mon 12:005pFri 15:0011431.6%171.3-63.61208.210.60.22R1.241126.364.9%55.1h
Mon 12:005pFri Close11432.5%167.3-66.91038.19.10.24R1.201145.266.7%57.9h
Mon 12:005pFri 17:0011431.6%169.2-65.21005.58.80.21R1.201051.465.8%55.8h
Mon 12:005pFri 19:0011432.5%165.6-66.31023.79.00.22R1.201149.365.8%56.5h

Profit Factor heatmap: 08A Baseline — Long / DownsideFailed / All Buckets

08A Filtered — Long / DownsideFailed / Q3 only (USDJPY)

Q3 only. downside_failed == True required. USDJPY sweep: PF 3.01, N=25.

Best variant: Mon 09:00 | 5p buf | Fri 19:00 — PF 3.01, WR 40.0%, Exp 37.4p, N = 25, MaxDD = 112.0p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 09:005pFri 19:002540.0%140.0-31.0935.437.41.03R3.01112.052.0%59.7h
Mon 09:005pFri 17:002544.0%121.9-32.5886.535.50.98R2.95112.052.0%58.7h
Mon 09:005pFri Close2540.0%143.4-33.9925.337.01.04R2.82125.456.0%61.6h
Mon 09:005pFri 15:002544.0%119.1-34.2830.933.20.95R2.73126.252.0%57.8h
Mon 09:0010pFri 19:002540.0%140.0-35.1872.934.90.81R2.66127.052.0%63.0h
Mon 09:0010pFri 17:002544.0%121.9-36.9824.033.00.77R2.59127.052.0%62.0h
Mon 09:0010pFri Close2540.0%143.4-38.4857.834.30.81R2.49147.956.0%64.9h
Mon 09:0010pFri 15:002544.0%119.1-38.7768.430.70.74R2.42141.252.0%61.1h
Mon 09:0015pFri 19:002540.0%140.0-39.5807.932.30.65R2.36142.052.0%64.3h
Mon 09:0015pFri 17:002544.0%121.9-41.6759.030.40.62R2.30142.052.0%63.4h
Mon 09:0015pFri Close2540.0%143.4-43.1787.831.50.65R2.22172.956.0%66.2h
Mon 09:0015pFri 15:002544.0%119.1-43.3703.428.10.59R2.16161.152.0%62.4h
Mon 09:0020pFri 19:002540.0%140.0-43.8742.929.70.53R2.13157.052.0%64.5h
Mon 09:0020pFri 17:002544.0%121.9-46.2694.027.80.50R2.07157.552.0%63.5h
Mon 09:0020pFri Close2540.0%143.4-47.7717.828.70.52R2.00197.956.0%66.4h
Mon 12:005pFri 19:002347.8%116.1-53.9630.727.40.62R1.98272.647.8%64.7h
Mon 09:0020pFri 15:002544.0%119.1-48.0638.425.50.47R1.95191.152.0%62.6h
Mon 12:005pFri 17:002347.8%109.3-51.7581.825.30.59R1.94278.247.8%63.7h
Mon 12:005pFri Close2347.8%118.5-56.9620.627.00.63R1.91278.552.2%66.8h
Mon 12:005pFri 15:002343.5%114.5-47.6526.222.90.57R1.85311.847.8%62.7h

Profit Factor heatmap: 08A Filtered — Long / DownsideFailed / Q3 only (USDJPY)

Test 05B — Bearish Open-Trap Model

08B Baseline — Short / UpsideFailed / All Buckets

All buckets. upside_failed == True required.

Best variant: Mon 12:00 | 10p buf | Fri Close — PF 0.73, WR 22.5%, Exp -15.9p, N = 71, MaxDD = 2042.8p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 12:0010pFri Close7122.5%188.5-75.4-1129.2-15.9-0.28R0.732042.871.8%51.5h
Mon 12:0010pFri 19:007122.5%183.1-74.1-1147.4-16.2-0.28R0.722043.071.8%50.4h
Mon 12:0010pFri 17:007123.9%168.6-74.9-1177.8-16.6-0.28R0.712015.370.4%49.9h
Mon 12:0010pFri 15:007122.5%175.2-73.6-1245.4-17.5-0.28R0.692076.670.4%49.3h
Mon 12:0015pFri Close7122.5%188.5-80.0-1384.2-19.5-0.31R0.692272.871.8%52.8h
Mon 12:0015pFri 19:007122.5%183.1-78.8-1402.4-19.8-0.31R0.682273.071.8%51.6h
Mon 12:0015pFri 17:007123.9%168.6-79.5-1427.8-20.1-0.31R0.672240.370.4%51.1h
Mon 12:0015pFri 15:007122.5%175.2-78.2-1495.4-21.1-0.31R0.652301.670.4%50.5h
Mon 12:0020pFri Close7122.5%188.5-84.6-1639.2-23.1-0.33R0.652502.871.8%53.6h
Mon 12:005pFri Close7119.7%188.7-72.6-1497.0-21.1-0.34R0.642435.674.6%49.0h
Mon 12:005pFri 19:007119.7%185.0-71.4-1481.3-20.9-0.33R0.642401.974.6%48.0h
Mon 12:0020pFri 19:007122.5%183.1-83.4-1657.4-23.3-0.33R0.642503.071.8%52.5h
Mon 12:0020pFri 17:007123.9%168.6-84.1-1677.8-23.6-0.33R0.632465.370.4%51.9h
Mon 12:005pFri 15:007119.7%178.0-71.0-1555.8-21.9-0.33R0.622412.073.2%47.0h
Mon 12:0020pFri 15:007122.5%175.2-82.7-1745.4-24.6-0.33R0.622526.670.4%51.3h
Mon 12:005pFri 17:007121.1%168.1-72.2-1521.0-21.4-0.33R0.622383.573.2%47.5h
Mon 09:0015pFri Close7618.4%160.8-68.5-1996.3-26.3-0.46R0.532496.378.9%48.6h
Mon 09:0015pFri 15:007617.1%171.3-67.1-2002.8-26.4-0.42R0.532482.577.6%46.8h
Mon 09:0010pFri Close7617.1%164.7-63.8-1877.6-24.7-0.46R0.532201.480.3%45.8h
Mon 09:0010pFri 15:007615.8%175.4-62.6-1901.6-25.0-0.42R0.532192.678.9%44.2h

Profit Factor heatmap: 08B Baseline — Short / UpsideFailed / All Buckets

08B Filtered — Short / UpsideFailed / Q2 only (USDJPY — marginal)

Q2 only. upside_failed == True required. USDJPY sweep: PF 1.57, N=14 (MARGINAL — run Long only).

Best variant: Mon 12:00 | 5p buf | Fri 19:00 — PF 1.57, WR 28.6%, Exp 26.5p, N = 14, MaxDD = 462.6p

HourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
Mon 12:005pFri 19:001428.6%257.0-65.7371.226.50.18R1.57462.657.1%61.4h
Mon 12:005pFri Close1428.6%274.1-70.3393.528.10.19R1.56444.957.1%63.1h
Mon 12:0010pFri 19:001428.6%257.0-69.7331.223.70.14R1.48502.657.1%62.2h
Mon 12:0010pFri Close1428.6%274.1-74.3353.525.20.15R1.48484.957.1%63.9h
Mon 12:005pFri 17:001435.7%192.3-73.7298.021.30.14R1.45510.657.1%60.6h
Mon 12:0015pFri Close1428.6%274.1-78.3313.522.40.12R1.40524.957.1%66.0h
Mon 12:0015pFri 19:001428.6%257.0-73.7291.220.80.11R1.40542.657.1%64.3h
Mon 12:0010pFri 17:001435.7%192.3-78.2258.018.40.11R1.37550.657.1%61.4h
Mon 12:0020pFri Close1428.6%274.1-82.3273.519.50.08R1.33564.957.1%66.2h
Mon 12:005pFri 15:001435.7%174.8-73.3214.015.30.12R1.32582.557.1%59.7h
Mon 12:0020pFri 19:001428.6%257.0-77.7251.217.90.07R1.32582.657.1%64.5h
Mon 12:0015pFri 17:001435.7%192.3-82.6218.015.60.07R1.29590.657.1%63.4h
Mon 12:0010pFri 15:001435.7%174.8-77.8174.012.40.08R1.25622.557.1%60.5h
Mon 12:0020pFri 17:001435.7%192.3-87.1178.012.70.04R1.23630.657.1%63.6h
Mon 12:0015pFri 15:001435.7%174.8-82.2134.09.60.04R1.18662.557.1%62.6h
Mon 12:0020pFri 15:001435.7%174.8-86.694.06.70.01R1.12702.557.1%62.8h
Mon 03:005pFri Close1711.8%104.5-35.2-319.7-18.8-0.78R0.40421.388.2%29.3h
Mon 09:0020pFri Close2030.0%66.8-75.3-653.8-32.7-0.48R0.38830.670.0%56.6h
Mon 03:005pFri 19:001711.8%100.2-35.2-328.2-19.3-0.79R0.38421.388.2%28.8h
Mon 03:005pFri 15:001711.8%98.9-35.2-330.9-19.5-0.79R0.37421.388.2%28.4h

Profit Factor heatmap: 08B Filtered — Short / UpsideFailed / Q2 only (USDJPY — marginal)

Cross-Strategy Comparison

All 5 strategies shown at their individually optimal (entrance hour / buffer / exit). The key question: does bucket filtering materially improve tradeability versus taking all confirmed trap trades?

StrategyHourBufferExitNWR%AvgWinAvgLossTotalExpAvgRPFMaxDDStop%Hold
T04_refMon 03:0020pFri Close19526.2%169.7-48.51668.88.60.25R1.241229.173.3%47.0h
08A_baseMon 09:005pFri 15:0010434.6%162.8-55.32099.820.20.58R1.56745.764.4%53.5h
08A_filtMon 09:005pFri 19:002540.0%140.0-31.0935.437.41.03R3.01112.052.0%59.7h
08B_baseMon 12:0010pFri Close7122.5%188.5-75.4-1129.2-15.9-0.28R0.732042.871.8%51.5h
08B_filtMon 12:005pFri 19:001428.6%257.0-65.7371.226.50.18R1.57462.657.1%61.4h

Profit Factor, Win Rate, Expectancy: best variant per strategy.

Stop-hit percentage and average R multiple: best variant per strategy.

Trade pip distributions: best variant per strategy.

Weekly candle-type attribution for traded weeks (best variant per strategy).

Judgement

Confidentiality: This analysis is proprietary to Kalaya Capital. All strategy logic, parameters, and results are internal research material.
05A: Bucket filtering improves the bullish trap model. Filtered (Q2+Q3) PF = 3.01 vs baseline PF = 1.56 (+1.77). WR: 40.0% vs 34.6% (+13.8pp). Expectancy: 37.4p vs 20.2p. Restricting to bullish open-position buckets concentrates the edge.
05A adds value over the Test 04 reference. Filtered trap PF = 3.01 vs T04 Ref PF = 1.24 (+1.77). Expectancy: ++28.8p improvement. The downside_failed feature adds meaningful filtration over the unconditional entry.
05B: Bearish trap model shows positive edge in filtered variant. Filtered (Q1+Q2+Q3) PF = 1.57, WR = 28.6%, Expectancy = 26.5p. This is the first confirmed positive bearish expectancy across all studies.
Overall best strategy: 08A_filt — PF = 3.01, WR = 40.0%, Expectancy = 37.4p, N = 25. Observation hour: Mon 09:00, Buffer: 5p, Exit: Fri 19:00.
Recommendation — Next Step: Both bullish and bearish trap models show positive edge. Proceed to Strategy Test 06 for both directions, focusing on parameter refinement rather than further bucket filtering. Consider whether a combined allocation (long Q2/Q3, short Q1) produces a smoother equity curve.