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KALAYA CAPITAL

Research Report · weekly_breakout_v1

Trades breakouts of prior week's high/low using 2-week time exit.

MOMENTUM / BREAKOUT

Markets: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY  |  Timeframe: Weekly (W1 native)  |  Data: 2021-05-07 → 2026-05-01  |  261 W1 bars  |  Generated: 2026-05-02 19:29 UTC

Evaluation Criteria

Final Decision

✘  REJECT
0/3 instruments passed gating.
Below 60% approval threshold.

Primary Failure Driver

Negative expectancy

Next Action

✎  MODIFY
Weak edge present. Add trend/regime filter or extend to more markets before re-gating.

Strategy Logic

SetupWeekly OHLC bars resampled from H1 intraday data. No trend filter, regime filter, or volatility filter applied.
TriggerCurrent week's close breaks above prior week's high (LONG) or below prior week's low (SHORT).
EntryEnter at the weekly closing price of the breakout bar.
ExitExit at the weekly closing price after holding exactly 2 completed weeks. Time-based exit only.
Risk ModelNo stop loss. No take profit. No position sizing — modelled on return_pct basis only.
Position RulesOne position at a time. No re-entry while in trade. No pyramiding. No scaling.

Cross-Market Results

InstrumentTrade CountExpectancyProfit Factor Max DDWin RateNet PnLStatus
EURUSD87-0.01%0.99-7.75%49.4%-0.45%REJECTED
GBPUSD830.14%1.33-8.50%56.6%11.67%REJECTED
USDJPY780.42%1.81-5.84%60.3%32.75%REJECTED
PORTFOLIO TOTAL2480.18%1.36-8.50%55.2%14.66%

Fail Summary

Monthly Consistency

Overall regime behaviour: Inconsistent

EURUSD [MIXED]GBPUSD [MIXED]USDJPY [MIXED]
YearMonthEURUSDGBPUSDUSDJPY
2021050.60%
202106-0.17%
202107-0.03%-0.25%0.34%
2021080.61%-0.87%
202109-2.89%-2.68%
2021101.07%-0.03%2.47%
2021110.49%2.53%
2021120.49%-0.00%
202201-2.03%1.16%-0.62%
202202-1.80%-1.20%0.19%
2022032.35%1.67%4.11%
2022040.73%0.40%4.45%
202205-1.86%2.66%-0.51%
202206-2.34%0.32%3.14%
2022073.18%-0.85%-3.62%
202208-0.33%-0.35%-0.18%
2022090.84%3.48%4.29%
202210-3.04%-2.13%1.67%
2022114.31%4.06%-0.28%
2022120.47%1.38%-1.75%
2023011.58%0.84%-1.05%
2023020.92%0.15%2.26%
202303-0.88%1.29%4.49%
2023040.24%0.76%
202305-0.37%-0.81%-0.44%
202306-0.42%-0.73%3.17%
202307-1.88%0.15%-5.38%
2023080.61%0.14%1.00%
2023091.24%2.73%0.37%
2023100.60%0.04%0.61%
2023111.65%0.65%-0.30%
202312-2.52%1.76%3.32%
202401-0.27%-2.72%
2024021.12%0.26%0.95%
202403-0.11%-2.01%-2.96%
202404-0.77%-0.72%3.50%
2024050.53%1.55%-1.61%
202406-0.07%0.31%-0.14%
2024070.39%0.78%3.22%
202408-0.38%2.21%4.59%
2024090.38%
202410-0.77%-1.03%3.95%
2024113.10%-0.56%0.23%
202412-1.44%-0.88%0.03%
2025011.48%1.30%
202502-2.91%-0.07%1.38%
202503-4.84%0.04%0.00%
2025044.03%1.68%
202505-0.50%-0.29%0.53%
2025061.41%-0.11%-1.63%
202507-0.64%-1.11%-0.89%
202508-1.01%-2.37%
202509-1.14%
2025100.64%0.68%2.22%
202511-0.93%-0.16%1.48%
2025120.56%1.02%-1.58%
202601-1.59%-2.55%-1.93%
2026020.20%0.76%-2.34%
2026031.81%1.02%2.68%
202604-0.03%-2.32%-0.62%
2026050.46%
TOTAL-0.45%27/55 pos11.67%32/56 pos32.75%31/53 pos

Combined Equity Curves

Individual Equity Curves

EURUSD
Final Return: -0.42% Return Peak: 3.37% Return Trough: -5.67% Max DD: -7.75% Max Run-Up: +9.03%
GBPUSD
Final Return: +11.07% Return Peak: 19.11% Return Trough: -3.84% Max DD: -8.50% Max Run-Up: +22.95%
USDJPY
Final Return: +32.93% Return Peak: 36.70% Return Trough: 0.00% Max DD: -5.84% Max Run-Up: +36.70%